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Understanding the N 11 Countries
The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) were named in 2003 by Goldman Sachs, as the most rapidly developing countries with the greatest economic potential. With these countries continuing to develop fast, albeit at different rates, it is useful to look at the next tier of emerging economies. Those countries following the BRIC path will typically experience high rates of population growth, creating a growing pool of potential consumers, at the same time as rising disposable incomes. Since the acronym BRIC was coined, the economies of these countries have grown rapidly, with China experiencing the highest growth in the group and Brazil the lowest.
The original 2003 Goldman Sachs research focused on Brazil, Russia, India and China as the economies with the greatest development potential to 2050 on the basis of positive economic fundamentals, large and growing populations, and the ability to exploit resource assets, such as oil. By 2008 this hypothesis is playing out. All the BRIC countries have posted consistent economic growth since 2001, despite the global economic downturn of 2001-2002. In 2007, economic growth registered 4.4%, 7.0%, 8.9% and 11.5% for Brazil, Russia, India and China.
* The Next-11 (N11), is grouping comprises Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam.
* The N11 countries share the characteristics of rapidly growing populations combined with significant industrial capacity or potential.
* Together, these factors indicate a growing consumer market with increased earning potential, creating business opportunities for both local and international firms.
* However, long-term risks to the progression of the N11 towards BRIC economic levels include slowing oil production for those that are oil exporters, and mounting levels of political instability.
* Although varied both geographically and economically, these 11 countries have features in common that are believed to single out their high economic potential.
* All have large and growing populations. Between 1980 and 2008, population growth was highest in Pakistan at 110.8%, with the lowest being in South Korea, with 28.4% period growth.
* Of the N11 countries, Indonesia had the largest population as of January 2008, with 228.9 million people, while South Korea had the smallest at 47.6 million.
* In 2006, Mexico had the highest sum of private final consumption expenditure, totaling US$567 billion. Vietnam had the lowest, at US$36.8 billion.
* All 11 countries demonstrate population growth rates above those of Western developed economies, indicating greater consumer market potential over the medium term. Large populations represent a wide potential pool of consumers for businesses to target, while high growth rates mean that this market will expand rapidly, providing proportionally more potential customers.
Current Consumer Trends
In 2007, the N11 economies performed markedly differently, with varying implications for consumer spending trends:
* In 2007, real GDP growth varied between 2.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, for Mexico and Vietnam respectively;
* These differing growth levels were led by country-specific factors. For example, Mexican growth fell from 4.8% in 2006 owing to the Mexican economy's close links to the US economy, which experienced decelerating growth in 2007 owing to a growing credit crisis, particularly in the housing sector, growing by only 1.9%, compared to 2.9% in 2006;
* By contrast, Vietnamese economic growth was fueled by strong export figures, particularly of textile goods, and a surging tourism industry. In addition, Vietnam benefited from a diversified export market, meaning that it was less affected by the slowdown in the USA. In 2006 Vietnam sent 22.8% of its exports to the USA, while Mexico sent 85.8%;
* Consumer markets in Vietnam therefore possessed greater growth potential, with high economic growth rates encouraging wage and job growth.
Future Scenarios
Both domestic and international factors will affect growth prospects for the N11 countries going forward:
* Demand from key export markets will determine economic growth. For the N11 countries, the USA and China are the main export markets. Although US GDP growth is forecast to reach only 1.9% year-on-year in 2008 owing to ongoing concerns.
* Those countries that are most stable – whether via democracy or dictatorship – will have better prospects for consistent growth. These include South Korea, Vietnam, Mexico and Egypt.
* A key factor for Iran will be the continuation of economic sanctions by the USA, which would curtail growth.
SPORTS SHORTS
* Ten Sports will be the home for the finest European football action for the next four years after securing the broadcasting rights of premier UEFA tournaments, including the new-look UEFA Champions League, until 2012. The rights are for the entire Indian Sub-continent, and include, apart from the UEFA Champions League, the UEFA Cup and the UEFA Super Cup. Ten Sports have already begun showing different games simultaneously across both the Ten Sports and Zee Sports channels as well as making all games available live on line for broadband viewers. Televisionpoint.com, Sport Business, Sportcal, 11th Apr 2008
* The United Arab Emirates Football Association (UAEFA) has signed an agreement with World Sports Group (WSG). The agreement has resulted in a Dh3 million (US$820,000) boost for the President's Cup final, to be played on Monday between defending champion Al Wasl and Al Ahli. Mohammad Khalfan Al Rumaithy, UAEFA president, revealed the Singapore-based company had already generated sponsor interest, providing a sense of optimism for the undisclosed duration of the deal. Aldar, Adnoc, HSBC and General Holding Corporation (GHC), along with WSG, will be supporting Monday's final which will be played at the Zayed Sports City. Football Insider, 11th Apr 2008
* AC Milan have plans to set up a football school in Singapore, according to the Today newspaper. The complex, set to be called AC Milan Junior Camp, will provide training for youngsters between the ages of 6 and 18. Reports indicated that officials from the Serie A side could be in Singapore as early as next week to meet local officials and firm up plans. Milan want to extend their sphere of influence having already established a youth talent initiative in North America. Soccer Investor, 11th Apr 2008
* By the end of this year's MIPTV market, KBS will have secured US$4.5million in sales, according to Oh Suk Kwon, head, global strategy team, KBS. Kwon told Television Asia Plus that over US$3million of KBS' trademark epic dramas have been sold to Pony Canyon Japan. By the end of MIPTV, being held 7-11 April 2008 at Palais des Festivals in Cannes, Kwon expects to have exceeded the company's market target of US$4million in sales by hitting the US$4.5million mark. KBS's pivotal property this market, Great King Sejong, which dominated le Palais' exterior and KBS' revamped MIPTV booth, has been sold into Vietnam. And six-part HD documentary series Insight on Asia has now been sold to over 15 countries globally. Television Asia Plus, 14th Apr 2008
* Most of Al Jazeera English's growth is anticipated in the Asia Pacific region, according to Al Jazeera Network's director, global distribution Phil Lawrie. With over 80million households upon launch, the Doha-HQ'd news channel now has 110 million subscribers worldwide, with that number growing by around 1million per month. Lawrie told Television Asia Plus that Asia currently accounts for around 25% of the total, and he sees most of the channel's growth occurring in the region. 2008 has seen Al Jazeera English seal deals with Hong Kong's i-CABLE and Singapore's SingTel mioTV, as well as adding 2million subscribers via Vietnam's VTC, and 3million in Bangladesh. Al Jazeera Mobile is doing very well in the Middle East, with SMS and MMS offerings currently, and the channel is producing VOD and made-for-mobile products of around 2-3 minutes in length. Television Asia Plus, 14th Apr 2008
* Orange France has unveiled the pricing for its coverage of Ligue 1, French soccer’s top-tier league, from next season. From next season, access to Ligue 1 coverage on Orange’s subscription television channel, available via ADSL, will cost fans €4.90 ($7.75) per month if a year-long subscription is taken, and €6.90 per month without a subscription. In February, Orange bought live rights to 38 Saturday night games of Ligue 1 from 2008-09 to 2011-12, and by doing so broke the present monopoly on live Ligue 1 rights held by Canal Plus, the French pay-television operator. Orange is paying an estimated €208 million per season for its different packages of Ligue 1 rights. Sportcal, 11th Apr 2008
* Powerboat P1 has confirmed Vigo as the venue for the first ever Powerboat P1 Grand Prix to be staged in Spain. The biggest city in Galicia will host the fifth round of the 2008 P1 World Championship from September 12- 14. This year, P1 will host over 14 races (two per event) across three continents for the world championship title. The 2008 series has a record entry of 24 teams, with more than 500,000 people expected to attend the seven events in Europe, Tunisia and Bahrain. Sport Business, 11th Apr 2008
* MotoGP has launched the MotoGP Impact VoiP service, a free piece of software that allows motorcycling fans to follow event news and communicate with other users. The software enables communication to anywhere in the world via calls or texts, with the option of transferring contact details from other services. It also supports usernames on different messaging networks. Calls to other users online are free, with SMS messages and voice calls payable through PayPal. The service, which was launched this week, also offers deals on various ringtones, pictures and videos. The software is available to download from http://impact.motogp.com. Sports Media, 11th Apr 2008
* The Tennis Channel has agreed a deal to sell the Tennis Channel Open, its Las Vegas-based men’s professional competition, to the ATP. Ken Solomon, TTC’s chairman and chief executive, attributed the decision to its capture of more television rights, including those of the three Grand Slam tournaments, the French and Australian Open and Wimbledon. A planned revamp of the ATP Tour schedule next year was also a deciding factor, according to Solomon. The tournament was acquired by Tennis Channel from IMG, the international sports agency, in 2005. It was previously known as the Franklin Templeton Tennis Classic and located in Scottsdale, Arizona. Sportcal, 11th Apr 2008
* The Four Nations Tournament, a planned new international soccer tournament between Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, is set to start in 2011 after an agreement was reached by the respective national associations. The competition cannot start before 2011 because of fixture congestion, according to the Scottish FA. The competition will be hosted on a rotational basis with two games each match day played in February and May. The four-team tournament was originally set to be called the Celtic Cup. Sportcal, 11th Apr 2008
MORE NEWS
Indonesia/Broadcast: Govt Temporarily Blocks Astro's Broadcast
The Indonesian government has blocked the broadcast of subscription television operator Astro, a unit of Malaysia's largest pay TV operator Astro All Asia Network Plc., due to its failure to meet obligations. Astro, managed in Indonesia by PT Direct Vision, is accused by the Ministry of Information and Communication of a number of negligence, including failing to pay fees for using certain frequency bands.
Astro, which began operations in 2006, broadcasts via satellite in Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. The operator has been off-air since 10 a.m. Friday. Gatot D. Broto, spokesman for the ministry's directorate general of post and telecommunication said the ministry would allow Astro to resume broadcasting immediately upon fulfillment of its obligations. "If Astro has fulfilled the obligations by next Monday, it can directly resume its broadcast," he said, adding the ban had nothing to do with frequency problems or satellite reciprocal arrangements.
Gatot said the government had contacted Astro to fulfill its payments on March 19 before issuing a warning letter. "We won't make it complicated. We just want to enforce the broadcasting regulation. "And it has nothing to do with Astro's monopoly of English League soccer programs," he said.
Direct Vision corporate affairs vice president Halim Mahfudz said the company had met all ministry requests and was now waiting for the government to end restrictions on its broadcasting. He said the company had paid around Rp 191 million (US$20,000) to the ministry Thursday for the right to use the frequency. "We are worried there will be legal action (from customers) for missing Saturday's English League soccer match and the International Golf Competition if the government still refuses to resume the broadcast tomorrow," he said.
"It will cost us an estimated loss of around US$100,000 for not broadcasting our programs for one day." There are two systems -- cable and satellite -- available in Indonesia, operated by five major players; Indovision, Indosat IM2, Astro, First Media and Telkom Vision. Around 500,000 households in Indonesia subscribe to satellite-based television, while 200,000 use cable. Subscribers to the five local operators grew from 476,000 in 2006 to 700,000 last year. Jakarta Post, 12th Apr 2008
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